Charts point to trouble for this “Amazon-proof” retailer: Technical analyst

Investing


Home Depot shares are up around 15 percent this year, but one top technician warns that the big-box retailer could be in trouble as it gears up to report earnings Tuesday before the bell.

Fellow big retailers Target and Wal-Mart are also scheduled to report earnings this week, and the options market is implying about a 5 percent move in either direction for Target, a 4 percent move for Wal-Mart and a 3 percent move for Home Depot. This comes after a tumultuous week for department stores after their earnings reports. J.C. Penney saw the biggest drop — falling 28 percent, Macy’s sank 12 percent, and Kohl’s and Nordstrom fell 8 percent and 4 percent respectively.

While Home Depot has managed to buck the downtrend in the broader retail space – commonly referred to as “Amazon-proof” and trades just 4 percent from its all-time high in May – Carter Worth of Cornerstone Macro warned “this great winner is at a difficult level.”

“The stock has broken out to new highs, but it could never make a relative high [to the S&P 500],” Worth said Friday on CNBC’s “Options Action.” “Even as it’s gone up absolute, it has not been performing relative to other equities.”

While looking at a chart of Home Depot, “we’ve just moved 8 percent from the bottom of this channel to the top, and I don’t think you’re quite ready to break out,” Worth said. Home Depot’s stock has seen gains in 13 of the last 15 sessions.

“I think the next move is down, and I want to bet against Home Depot having rallied steeply going into its earnings.”

Home Depot shares were trading in the $154.66 range midday Monday.



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